PART 1- AFGHANISTAN FALL OF A REPUBLIC AND INDIAS THREE FRONT WAR

I dug out my twelve tweet thread written on 15 Feb 2020 with . The collapse of Afghanistan was so boldly written on the wall and wondered if India really did anything except ‘closely monitoring’ the situation. On 15 Aug 2021, Indias THIRD FRONT opened. We need to win this war on the THIRD FRONT.

THE WRITING ON THE WALL

A quick look at the major points of the 12 tweets of Feb 2020 will be the correct take off point. The context was heated debate in late 2019/early 2020 on whether we should send Army to Afghanistan on insistence by United States. The ‘voice’ vote was leaning towards a ‘yes’, and that is when I wrote the tweets:

• Indian army in Afghanistan will prove to be the biggest ambush site for Indian army. Taliban, Pakistan ISI,  homegrown Pakistani terrorists and locals will look alike. While Indian army will be confined to camps, the entire country will give free run to the killers.
• The land is most hostile  and  no one can be trusted. Launching operations on information will lead troops to killing areas / ambush sites chosen by Taliban. This is a God sent opportunity for Pakistan to square-up with Indian army. They don’t have to take risks in Kashmir any more.
• Securing lines of communication providing protection to convoys, protecting camps and having equipment permitting night operations is the biggest challenge. We are a third world army and the only strength we have is manpower. They will die in hundreds.
• We have the weakest military leaders in decades with even worse moral fibre. No one advises professionally. This is dangerous for men. The officers are products of counter insurgency and most had put in 10-12 years-service when Kashmir erupted in 90’s. Today their experience comes from the chair since none has operated at company level.
• Indian army has been dragged into counter-insurgency. It is a conventional army for a specific role but today counter insurgency seems as the only role of army. Afghanistan is nothing else but counter insurgency and hence the military judgement cannot be the basis of decision. It is conventional army, albeit in an alien land pushed by the bureaucracy.
• Ours is a third world army with a third world mindset. We dream to become a competitor to first world armies. From perimeter fence to air support to UAVs to 100% night operations, we are neither equipped nor trained. We will look as global fools with no military mind. We have no concept of jointness, how then do we operate?
• The closest we have got to jointness is a set of maroon epaulets a month back. Comptroller and Auditor General flogs ministry of defense for not providing gloves, goggles and socks to troops in Siachen. Did you ever hear even one word being said by Chief or Army Commander, the Corps Commander or the Division Commander of kitting?
• Russia rolled into Afghanistan through land frontier, US has Iraq, UAE and puppet state of Pakistan. Both superpowers had firm footing on land, where does India stand with a hostile state of Pakistan between us and Afghanistan? There is hostile border to East and West and a strict no-go to north. Sea to south is again through a different country. We would have no choice but to use Air Force and Navy. Soon an aircraft takes off or a ship leaves harbour, we are in hostile environment. The threat reaches India.
• The cost of supporting troops in Siachen will look like pocket money when compared to Afghanistan. Army will be ever ready to deploy in Afghanistan due to Annual Confidential Reports, Blue Cap, Allowances and an additional rib band.
• The entire operation will be supported by air and the returning aircraft will bring back endless coffins. The CDS will be blamed and made a scapegoat.

The above was penned in Feb 2020.

AFGHANISTAN: FALL OF A REPUBLIC

Afghanistan is an example. Taliban is a reality today. We are cozying up with US who never bothered to take India into confidence. They left their embassy staff behind and are now inducting ten times the number of troops who had left, just to evacuate their staff. It sums up their reading of situation. Indian support to the Afghanistan government, treating Taliban as pariah, investing thousands of crores for development, providing aircrafts and training their officer cadre etc. were the suggestions by experts which government adhered to, but the cunning and guile required in diplomacy is missing. There are no channels of communication with Taliban. It comes out now that China was having complete dialogue with Taliban from over six months.

Within 24 hours of Taliban taking over the Presidential Palace, China welcomed Taliban. They were already talking to them from months and have already assured Taliban of reconstructing Afghanistan at their cost. Russia welcomed them immediately despite suffering humiliation in Afghanistan 30-35 years ago. Pakistan PM jumped in the race and had lot in praise of Taliban. Two out of five permanent members of security council are already on Taliban’s side. Pakistan has lot to be worried about from Taliban. The unsettled border dispute, northern tribal belt and its operations against Taliban and similar activities leave them completely vulnerable. Pakistan supported Taliban for 25 years and will find a way out with Chinas help. Pakistan’s worries are short term.

Reports of Afghanistan aircrafts being flown to safety in the neighbouring countries is a juvenile act of armed forces. All will be eventually returned. Remember Iraq? Afghanistan is a landlocked country and shares its 99% borders with muslim countries. Turkey has come out in open as its major supporter. Taliban has numerous backers. Any doubts of massive fighting erupting or a civil war or even action on Pakistan border areas can be laid to rest. Taliban needs to establish its credibility and it will do so with help of radical Islamic support and all countries that have declared themselves as ‘Islamic’ countries.

Taliban will. Start on right footing. They will establish international relations and assure the public and international community of safety for all. They will separate the hardliners and will immediately get into nation building as per sharia law. A hard-core Islamic country helps all its neighbours.

On 15 Aug 2021, while the Prime Ministers 90 minutes speech was on from Red Fort, the Taliban was in the Presidential Palace in Kabul. India had no idea of what was happening in Kabul and an interesting communique said, ‘India was closely monitoring the situation’. Within 24 hours, MEAs own staff and ITBP were marooned in Afghanistan. So much for Indian ‘intelligence’ set up, so much for our friendship with US and so much for our foresight.

We should have welcomed Taliban on 15 August itself. We are three days late today. Each day delay is taking us further away from reality.

THE ONLY FRONT: 1948 TO 2019

What is this ‘third’ front? India is used to just one enemy. Pakistan. Ask any General. It’s just Pakistan. We have ONLY ONE FRONT. Even the Pakistan threat is expected only in the Punjab Plains and Rajasthan. Complete J&K Sector where we share LoC with Pakistan, we don’t expect any threat ‘except’ insurgency. Just the counter-insurgency operations are sufficient to tackle the problem. This is our understanding of Pakistan as ‘single threat to India”. Kargil was brushed off, 527 killed ‘written off’, no one was to be blamed and the then COAS and chain of command not only gets clean chit but preside over functions even today. Within this ‘one’ front, our limited military and political minds could not imagine a Kargil type adventure by Pakistan.

With one front to tackle, that too only in plains, the military thinkers made the Government and the country pay for three armour and mechanized based strike corps with equally matching other arms and services. To date India has spent lacs of crores each year maintaining these strike corps without any impact and leaving the Pakistan shared borders vulnerable.

From Ladakh to Arunachal, no threat ever existed. Even Kargil did not teach us lesson. A mountain strike corps inside J&K could have been placed from 2000 onwards without much expenditure. We just had to reorganize one of the three white elephants. We did not. WE JUST HAD ONE FRONT. The one front with three strike corps created an elite. We produced hundreds of paper generals. Counter Insurgency in J&K became another cow to be milked. We produced another hundreds of counter-insurgency generals.

In flat thirty years, Indian Army killed the ‘strategic thinkers’, the ‘military thinkers’ and Generals who could see ‘national security’. What we had was Generals in hundreds who became experts in ‘extracting’ the best for themselves.

The ONE FRONT is thus summarised. We lost thirty years and two generations of officers to personal ambition.

THE BIRTH OF THE SECOND FRONT : 2020

While one Republic was celebrating its 75^th anniversary, another Republic was dismantled. It leaves India in a very precarious situation. Regionally we have been completely isolated by China. It has taken China just 22 years to do it. In 1998, during a talk by a ‘China Expert’ from Institute of Defence and Strategy Analysis, as a major I had asked the expert if China was encircling India by getting all neighbouring countries of India under its control by providing military equipment, funding infrastructure and building ports etc. Specific names of projects were given. The expert took two minutes to ridicule me and made me sit down. He had no answer and probably had not thought of it.

2020, a violent shake by China after the much-publicized river side friendship, shakes India. Its China all over. The same Generals, now give very serious discourses on China. Now every General talk about SECOND FRONT as if they have been practicing it for ages. Even today, 17 Aug 2021, we have not officially accepted that we have second front. From Shaksgam Valley to Kibuthu we have no central security agency to coordinate. We have Army, ITBP and SSB on borders. Army has one command covering China as a part in north and another command covers China in the east as 1/7^th of its responsibility. The entire area of Himachal, Uttarakhand and Nepal is ‘free’. Nearest command starts from Sikkim.

Conventional wars are survival feed of Generals. It has taken 73 years to arrive at a decision that we require light tanks for Ladakh. It speaks volumes on tactical, strategic, and geopolitical intelligence of Generals post 1971 who never saw a two-front war till 2020.

Where is the SECOND FRONT? It was never there, ask the Generals. Today every General talk about ‘back-stabbing’ by China. Government is so happy to support this theory since it will save then being part of history. The entire establishment is on THE SECOND FRONT. Theaterisation is the buzz word.

While we now shout ‘THE TWO FRONT WAR” concept, without realising we already have opened the THIRD FRONT.

INDIA AND THIRD FRONT

That brings us to the THIRD FRONT. We face the biggest threat on the THIRD FRONT. ‘Third Front comprises Bureaucracy, Foreign Service, Intelligence Agencies, the three-armed services and the three ministries, Ministry of Home Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defence. We are not sure to win wars on FIRST and SECOND FRONT but we will certainly lose all future wars of all kinds, military, cyber, legal, trade, foreign affairs etc. on the THIRD FRONT. We have the biggest enemy within, called ‘ego’. It leads the third front.

2021, 23 years later, China, with Afghanistan in its pocket, Pakistan under complete control, instigating and supporting Nepal, Bangladesh being funded heavily, supporting Myanmar military regime and dominating Srilanka, our encirclement is complete. The THIRD FRONT was officially open on 15 Aug 2021. We have only ourselves to blame. What is the threat expected to present itself in few years? By my assessment the stopwatch has started.

Expect the following:

• China’s choke hold in India will get tighter. It will open new fronts for clash on borders, we can expect action in Ladakh and multiple places in geographically separated areas in Arunachal.
• Increased activity on LoC by Pakistan supported by breakaway Taliban factions.
• Approximately 200K Taliban cadre, armed with AK47’s and wide range of light weapons and the Afghanistan Armed Forces will prove to be a challenge for Taliban. While they will want the conventional armed forces to be in place, their importance will be drastically reduced since they have no enemy to fight. More than 100K Taliban will be free and this will become a major threat for Pakistan.
• 300K Afghanistan Army may be grabbed by Pakistan for training since Pakistan is considered the number one in conventional military in Islamic world.
• Taliban hatred for India is known and a major portion of their effort will be focused on India with Pakistan’s active cooperation. Taliban will give cold shoulder to India.
• Pakistan will give in to Taliban-Afghanistan to save its national interests.

FUTURE

India is completely isolated in the region and now faces the third front internally. What do we need to do internationally. My view-NOTHING. Focus on internal issues first to be prepared to take on the new challenges.

Internal. The third front is a situation created by our own people and brought upon on the nation. There is no one to be blamed. How do we address the Third Front?

• International Borders-Under Army.
• My article ONE BORDER ONE FORCE – ALL BORDERS UNDER MINISTRY OF DEFENCE https://colsanjaypande.com/one-border-one-force-all-borders-under-ministry-of-defence/ refers.
• Convert existing two strike corps to mountain corps, with one existing, plan three mountain strike corps and break the third strike corps and reorganize to have numerous independent Brigade plus armour-mech formations.
• Reorganizing National Reserves of Army to place one Strike Corps in J&K, one in Punjab and Rajasthan and one in East. Completely change the tactics and redesign strategy.
• Theaterisation not for publicity but for effect.
• Entire hinterland under Ministry of Home Affairs for security. Seamless integration of CAPFs with State Police.
• Much bigger role for State Police as ‘first-responders’.
• Prominent role for Home Guards.
• Completely revamping of intelligence set up.
• Dimensions of war be extended beyond land, air and sea to now include, cyber, trade, legal, media, psychological warfare and covert war.
• Completely flood Foreign Service Cadre with the experts from all dimensions of war.

External.

• Baluchistan, Sindh and Gilgit are our survival package. Before the Taliban gets over them, we need to walk on the razor-sharp edge of supporting them to keep Pakistan completely focused on their internal problems.
• Focus to split Pakistan into two or three parts. The conventional military advise from ages was ‘unbroken Pakistan is in India’s national interests. We were always wrong.
• Maintain distance from US.
• Change mindset from ‘conventional’ war to ‘cheaper options.
• We are consumed by ‘conventional’ war, it will never happen. How ready we are with doctrine on:
  • Trade War
  • Legal War
  • Biology War
  • Media War
  • Shipping-Sea Lanes War
  • War of Hinterland
  • Information war
• Before we attempt all of the above, we first need to resolve the ‘Internal’ changes.

THIRD FRONT is all about preparing India for future.

Are we?

Col Sanjay Pande

© Copyright