PART 2- AFGHANISTAN AND INDIA’S THREE FRONT WAR

How is Afghanistan involved in India’s THREE FRONT WAR? Afghanistan is the watershed in India’s fight against the THIRD FRONT. While we discovered the first front in 1948, we took 73 years to discover the Second.

Part 1- Afghanistan Fall of a Republic and India’s Three Front War  https://colsanjaypande.com/part-1-afghanistan-fall-of-a-republic-and-indias-three-front-war/

explains the Third Front of India. Afghanistan provides us the opportunity to change the course of India’s image in the international arena, where, to say the least, it is dismal. We need to immediately launch our war against the Third Front. Afghanistan-India relations in near future will be guided by the resolve to defeat the third front.

History of Afghanistan has nothing to do with ‘Independent’ India. Any contact with any nation pre-1947 is attributed to the British and we are not answerable to anyone. India’s history, with Afghanistan needs to be seen from two angles, Political and Social. There is no third.

INDIA AND AFGHANISTAN – POLITICAL AND SOCIAL CONNECT

Politically, we must respect Afghanistan for never having been a colony or under a foreign power in history. Numerous campaigns have been launched on and through Afghanistan in history and powers have ruled it for small periods. In last two hundred years, except for the British-Russian expansionist tug-of-war, where Afghanistan became a buffer state, no power has ruled Afghanistan. British too never ruled Afghanistan. From 1839 to 1880 their attempts to rule Afghanistan resulted in two wars called Anglo-Afghan Wars. They just subdued it militarily till the Anglo-Afghan War of 1919. British had a reluctant army with large scale desertions and troops reluctant to fight a war. The Afghani troops were large in numbers but rag-tag tribal outfits and poor equipment. Afghani workshops for military equipment repairs were mostly run by Sikhs. From 1880 to 1919, the British controlled the foreign policy of Afghanistan in exchange of payment of huge subsidy to the Afghanis. There was no other control. The just concluded First World War had weakened the British but they still had highly trained army with the finest equipment along with an Air Force and outnumbered the Afghans. Russia ceased to be a threat since the Tsars were on way out.

The outcome of Anglo-Afghan War 1919 was signing of a treaty under which the foreign policy subsidy was suspended and Afghanistan was in true sense independent. The internal affairs had always remained under them throughout the British dominance. British drew the Durand line between British-India and Afghanistan which to date has not been recognised by Afghanistan. This line currently aligns roughly with Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Britain soon slipped into the Second World War leaving Afghanistan undisturbed.

Socially, Indian connect with Afghanistan is from mythology to the Buddhism. The Pathans have always been part of Indian society. No one made them more famous than Sh. Rabindranath Tagore. Kabuli Wala is deeply embedded in Indian minds. The connect of people to people has always remained very close. The social connect is seen even today. Pathans on Indian streets are seen as very friendly and reliable people. They get treated very positively.  India is the natural destination for the Afghanis and in most cities the Afghani  cuisine is largely popular. At the ground level the people of the two nations have always been close. Taliban is from the same society. Taliban is what we call ‘Pathans’ as we refer to anyone from Afghanistan. Their ancestors share the same thoughts as any other. Mentally there is a very natural and deep connect between the people of two countries and the social connection between the ‘people’ is very strong. Developmental works done in rural Afghanistan by India in last decade is what gives out India’s response to the people of Afghanistan.

How does this ‘Political’ and ‘Social’ bonding between the people of Afghanistan and India matter today? Nothing matters more than it than ever before. With no history of animosity it is just a matter of time to put everything back on rails.

INDIA-AFGHANISTAN FUTURE

1996-2021, 25 turbulent years in Afghanistan-India relations can never be erased from memory of either Taliban or India. These two have not been nice to each other. If we purely go by the history of these 25 years, there would be no common ground of agreement and hence, acceptance of the fact that things did not go correctly is the right way forward. The path will only appear if we open our eyes to reality.

Welcoming Taliban. ‘Acceptance’ and ‘Welcoming’ Taliban should have happened on 15 Aug 2021. Today is 19 Aug and we are already four days late. There are some stark facts.

• Afghanistan has been ruled by locals from centuries and Taliban are locals. Why is India not accepting this fact?
• Afghanistan is a Muslim country from centuries and Taliban is Muslim. How does it affect us whether it is radical Islam or Moderate Islam? In either case have we ever interfered in their internal affairs?
• Being a democratic country, India supported the Government of Afghanistan while Taliban was in an armed struggle with ‘powers’ that be.
  • Who was Taliban fighting? With Russia in the 80’s towards the end of Russian occupation and US and NATO from last 22 years.
  • Taliban with Pakistan’s ISI assistance capture Kabul in 1996. They are in power.
  • Masoud forms ‘Northern Alliance’ to take on Taliban. He needs India’s help and BJP in power agrees and secretly helps Northern Alliance.
  • Taliban and one other outfit gets declared as terrorist entities under Resolution 1267  of United Nations in 1999.
  • 1999-2020, the 21 years are completely controlled by US and NATO, Taliban is the common enemy.
  • The democratic process since 2004 is dictated by US and Iran where the Northern Alliance (anti-Taliban) is supported.
  • There is a clear break from the past in 2014, when after reduced violence, Taliban takes on US Force completely.
  • The peace talks are finally turned into an agreement and US is to leave Afghanistan in 2021.
• Indian involvement in these 25 years as seen by Taliban is its support to Northern Alliance, but so did US, Iran, NATO and many countries. This is held against India by Taliban.
• Indian support in development and building infrastructure in last 15 years is as much a reality as was its support.
• What stops us welcoming Taliban?

The Future

Take a macro look at last 25 years and last 100 years. What stands out? The Political and Social connect counts and overshadows the last 25 years. Why then the ‘ego’ driven policy? Why is there a hesitation to welcome Taliban? Other than the Kashmir Insurgency where their cadres were deployed by Pakistan, why punish Taliban? The Afghanis, going by their history, have fought with every foreign power on their land, why punish them for fighting US or NATO?

Why has India taken sides in the military matters by supporting Northern Alliance? Is it  because, by coincidence BJP  has been in power on both occasions, that we don’t point it out ? Is it about the ‘ego’ of BJP or the paid bureaucracy who advise after finding in which direction the winds flow? How can we base our relations on something we have no control over. Is our hurt more because of the Air India hijack? Wasn’t the NSA part of the negotiating team and also accompanied the released terrorists to Kandahar? Is he not the NSA today? Is not recognising Taliban more about BJP and NSA? Or is the perception incorrect?

Regardless of the past, we need to create a new path going forward.

FIGHTING THE THIRD FRONT WAR

The sure shot way to peace and normalisation of relations with Afghanistan lie in India fighting its biggest war since independence, the war against the third front. Winning the third front war wins us not only Afghanistan, but it wins us many more friends and is a reliable and trusted path forward where the country interests are placed way above party and people. We need to first accept that we have a challenge and that the THIRD FRONT is the actual enemy of India.

• Galwan or Covid – we lost due to the third front.
• Afghanistan – we are in this state due to third front.

The Third Front

India cannot be held to ransom by persons, personalities or parties. The policies need to be stable regardless of internal turbulences. Whether incidents are decade old or few decades, there can be no blame game and the past cannot be blamed for the current situation. There is a fundamental flaw in how we do things. There is no other reason for the continuous and repeating failures in international relations.

Third Front comprises Bureaucracy, Foreign Service, Intelligence Agencies, the three-armed services and the three ministries, Ministry of Home Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defence.  We will certainly lose all future wars of all kinds, military, cyber, legal, trade, foreign affairs etc. on the THIRD FRONT. We have the biggest enemy within, called ‘ego’. It leads the third front. It has taken just 20 years for China to encircle India but no one speaks about it. With Afghanistan in its pocket, Pakistan under complete control, instigating and supporting Nepal, Bangladesh being funded heavily, supporting Myanmar military regime and dominating Srilanka, our encirclement is complete.

Our Immediate Threats and Challenges

Expect the following:

• China’s aggressive stance towards India will go a level up.
• Pakistan will be emboldened and will use the breakaway Taliban factions against India.
• Taliban, particularly the Pashtuns, will join the Baluchs in large numbers to free Baluchistan. This area is traditionally called Pashtunistan and the independence gives seacoast to Afghanistan.
• Pakistan will attempt to get inroads in Afghanistan but Taliban will try to clean its image of being a ‘terrorist’ organization and not align with Pakistan, which is now considered as a nation that exports terror across the world.
• Taliban hatred for India is known and a major portion of their effort will be focused on India with Pakistan’s instigation. Taliban will give cold shoulder to India.
• Pakistan will give in to Taliban-Afghanistan to save its national interests.

FUTURE

India needs to fight the war on its Third Front before attempting to handle Taliban-Afghanistan. Focus on internal issues first to be prepared to take on the new challenges. Our biggest challenge is that at national level each ministry becomes autonomous body. India cannot have 30 ministries at the Centre with no coordination. This is the core problem.

Ministry of Cooperation. Regardless of the reasons why it was created, I feel, this is by far the most progressive development in nations 75 years of governance. PMO started gaining importance since there was no coordination. The Prime Minister, to project India as ‘One Nation’ needs one ministry that regulates and controls all ministries. This ministry needs to be upgraded and few capable people appointed as MoS reporting directly to PM. These MoS need to be of Cabinet Rank.

There is a need to organise this ministry in a fast time frame and it must have responsibility to start ‘thinking’ about:

• Strategy Development
• Pakistan and China Front War
• Trade War
• Legal War
• Biology War
• Media War
• Shipping-Sea Lanes War
• War of Hinterland
• Information war

• The aim being to get each ministry involved and come out with a ‘national’ solution to put our complete national might in nation projection.
• This is our ultimate ‘think-tank’.

Suggestions for Current Crisis. The following can be immediately addressed by this Ministry of Cooperation:

• Completely re-look at our strategy to handle Afghanistan and all its neighbours. Make it a 10-year plan.
• Strategy for handling Afghanistan including giving it access to sea.
• Strategy for helping Afghanistan to gain support for independence of Baluchistan.
• Development of entire Afghanistan as a society without interference in their internal matters. Major development of health infrastructure including education.
• Develop very close relation with Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan keeping the larger interests of the country in mind.
• Strengthen relations with Iran.
• Strategy to split Pakistan into two or three parts. ‘Unbroken Pakistan is NOT in India’s national interests.
• Ways to maintain distance from US especially about Afghanistan.

This is the need of the hour. Will we?

WE ARE DOOMED IF WE DO NOT WIN THIS WAR AGAINST THE THIRD FRONT.

Col Sanjay Pande

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